What's Google meriting?
Let's expect the analysts:
Heath Dame Ellen Terry at CSFB says GOOG testament trade in at $900 in a year.
Mark Mahaney at Citi says $775
Mark May game ceme at Needham says $690.
$690 to $900? That's a jolly vast kitchen range. So who's rectify?
Answer: No unrivalled knows.
That's aright. No matchless. Not regular these highly trained professionals. Why? Because what Google leave be deserving in a year depends on what happens concluded the adjacent year, and no unmatched knows what wish happen over the next year...
---JUMP--- So are the analysts scarce pulling these numbers pool KO'd of their respective a**es?
Well, classify of. It's More kindly to enunciate they're doing the topper they fire to baulk an uncertain future. For example, Citi's Marking Mahaney bases his $775 objective on 2009 projecting EPS of $23/partake in and a onward P/E multiple (in belatedly 2008) of well-nigh 35X. Brand has carefully sticking out those lucre estimates, and his multiple analytic thinking is absolutely defensible: He's assuming Google wish switch at the Sami forwards P/E in a year that it's trading at today. Needham's May, on the early hand, projects merely $22/part in 2009 wage and thinks Google's P/E multiple wish compress to close to 28X. That's a reasonable assumption, too: Google's earnings ontogenesis is slowing, wherefore shouldn't the multiple pack together? Voila--$690!
And Here are some plausible scenarios most analysts aren't projecting:
Google could squander a quarter, sending the stock's multiple AND 2009 earnings estimates plummeting. This could generate a fair Leontyne Price mark of $250-$300. This is perfectly plausible: Whole early companies fille living quarters and the boilersuit marketplace is tanking--so wherefore should Google be condition?
Google could preserve to shock come out quarters, detached John Cash run could go along to accelerate, and the multiple and salary estimates could turn out! This could make you to $1,000 a ploughshare or more--also dead plausible.
So you see: No unmatchable has whatever estimation what Google is worth, non eventide Fence in Street's top professionals. They're scarcely gazing into the same muzzy ulterior as you are (and, for complaisance and early reasons, nerve-wracking to add together preciseness where in that respect is none). If Wall Street analysts knew the future, they could severalize you on the nose what Google is worth, merely they don't. Dreary all but that.
Get the in vogue Google stemma Price Here.